Saving the Gobi Desert and Mongolian steppes from the dzud will also save lives and livelihoods

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When the earth freezes in Mongolia, a large part of the economy freezes with it.
In this agrarian society where livestock outnumbers humans twenty to one, the winter disaster known as a dzud threat- ens lives and livelihoods for all. And the climate crisis is tightening its icy grip.

Typical of Mongolia’s harsh climatic con- ditions, dzuds manifest as severe winters with temperatures plummeting below freezing. They are characterized by sig- nificant snowfall and grounds rendered impenetrable by ice, impeding farmers from tilling and animals from grazing.
Amplifying the impact of the dzuds, cli- mate change contributes to land degra- dation, desertification and water scarcity. Warmer summers mean more droughts and less pasture growth. With scarce grazing opportunities, livestock are un- able to amass the critical fat reserves needed to endure the punishing winter months. And I n the winter months, tem- perature fluctuations cause thaw-and-re- freeze cycles that create an ice barrier, preventing animal access to food.” “This year’s dzud is far harsher than any in recent memory. Some 90 per- cent of Mongolians are now exposed to extreme winter weather events, com- pared to just 60 percent five years ago. For the nomadic herders this is a dev- astating economic toll.

A climate-driven double whammy

Fuelled by rising temperatures and er- ratic precipitation patterns, this dzud presents a double whammy. On the one hand, livestock populations – a stag- gering 71 million animals as of 2022 – are facing skyrocketing feed prices, deteriorating pasture, and dwindling” “supplies of natural forage. On the oth- er, disruptions to Mongolia’s crucial supply chain – for cashmere as well as other agricultural exports – translates into potential losses in the hundreds of millions. It’s a crippling loss for sector that employs one third of Mongolia’s population, and a good example of how climate change, livelihoods and the economy are inextricably linked.

Anticipation and adaptation

How to fight the deep freeze? With data, for starters. The Climate Risk In- dex, an early warning system powered by sophisticated climate forecasts and” “impact-based forecasting data, en- ables local authorities to be proactive. Through access to user-friendly data on aridity, drought risk and livestock impact, as implemented in dozens of villages, they can optimize pasture re- serve management and ensure time- ly deployment of supplementary feed programmes, potentially mitigating livestock losses.
Reliable climate data empowers Mon- golian herders to adapt livestock man- agement (bringing animals in earlier, harvesting hay sooner) to these shift- ing meteorological/climate patterns. Long-term adaptation strategies like sustainable water management ini-” “tiatives hold significant promise, too. Data shows that 40.8 percent of nat- ural disaster-related fatalities were due to water hazards. Initiatives like riparian forest restoration and refor- estation projects can improve water quality, biodiversity and groundwater resources, leading to increased pas- tureland productivity and enhanced resilience against future dzuds.

Global benefits, shared responsibility

National actions, braving this phenom- enon alone, are not enough. Coordi- nated global action is critical as well.
Consider the public good derived from”

“Mongolia’s Gobi Desert and its sur- rounding steppes, home to a vast array of globally significant plants and wild- life and the largest steppe ecosystem in the world. Protecting them should not be Mongolia’s responsibility alone.

Ensuring affordable support and fi- nancing for Mongolia’s climate action and conservation efforts benefits us all. We are encouraged by Mongolia’s pro- active approach to address these glob- al challenges, including the nation’s commitment to host the 17th United Nations Convention to Combat De- sertification in 2026, a global event that UNDP stands ready to support.

But money is tight, and Mongolia, like many developing nations, is snowed under. UNDP estimates that the coun- try would need additional spending of” “US$44.2 billion, or 17 percent of GDP annually, to achieve its national Sus- tainable Development Goals targets by 2030. So, it needs the international com- munity’s support in more ways than one – through bringing voice and attention to these concerns, to galvanize political and financial support, and to facilitate the sharing of data and technologies that can make a difference.

In the short term, herder communities would benefit from tools and protec- tions such as dedicated risk insurance and better access to credit. Beyond” “these measures, amplified internation- al efforts towards climate change mit- igation, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable financial mechanisms are crucial for building long-term resil- ience against future climate shocks.

Like the coveted cashmere they pro- duce, Mongolia’s herding communities have long been revered for their resil- ience. But the climate crisis is raising the stakes beyond the reach of their time-tested solutions. A coordinated global response is urgently needed, be- fore economic frostbite spreads.”

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