In the next five years, global temperatures are projected to surpass the 1.5°C mark above pre-industrial levels, with an 80% likelihood of at least one year exceeding this threshold. This acceleration poses a serious challenge to the Paris Agreement’s goals. The ocean, absorbing most of the excess heat, is warming at an alarming rate, leading to rising sea levels and declining oxygen levels, threatening marine life. Additionally, significant environmental problems such as food waste, biodiversity loss, plastic pollution, and air pollution exacerbate the crisis. Urgent action is needed to curb greenhouse gas emissions and address these pressing issues.
Global temperature is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial level temporarily in next 5 years. 80% likelihood of at least one year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C between 2024-2028. Short-term (annual) warming does not equate to a permanent breach of the lower 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. Likely that at least one of next five years will be the warmest on record, beating 2023.
There is an 80 percent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This is a stark warning that we are getting ever closer to the goals set in the Paris Agreement on climate change, which refers to long-term temperature increases over decades, not over one to five years.
The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline, according to the WMO report. It says that it is likely (86%) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, beating 2023 which is currently the warmest year.
There is a 47% likelihood that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year 2024-2028 period will exceed 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial era, says the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update – up from 32% from last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.
The chance (80%) of at least one of the next five years exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when such a chance was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 20% chance of exceedance, and this increased to a 66% chance between 2023 and 2027.
The update is produced by the UK’s Met Office, which is the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It provides a synthesis of predictions from WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres.
It was released to coincide with a major speech by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres calling for much more ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit in Italy 13-15 June.
“Behind these statistics lies the bleak reality that we are way off track to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. “We must urgently do more to cut greenhouse gas emissions, or we will pay an increasingly heavy price in terms of trillions of dollars in economic costs, millions of lives affected by more extreme weather and extensive damage to the environment and biodiversity.” “WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. We have already temporarily surpassed this level for individual months – and indeed as averaged over the most recent 12-month period. However, it is important to stress that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 °C goal is permanently lost because this refers to long-term warming over decades,” said Ko Barrett.
“We are living in unprecedented times, but we also have unprecedented skill in monitoring the climate and this can help inform our actions. This string of hottest months will be remembered as comparatively cold but if we manage to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the very near future we might be able to return to these “cold” temperatures by the end of the century,” said Carlo Buontempo, Director of Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep long-term global average surface temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C by the end of this century. The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
Even at current levels of global warming, there are already devastating climate impacts. These include more extreme heatwaves, extreme rainfall events and droughts; reductions in ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers; accelerating sea level rise and ocean heating.
The global average near-surface temperature in 2023 was 1.45 °Celsius (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.12 °C) above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the WMO State of the Global Climate 2023. It was by far the warmest year on record fuelled by long-term climate warming which combined with other factors, most notably a naturally occurring El Niño event, which is now waning.
Last year’s global temperature was boosted by a strong El Niño. A new WMO Update predicts the development of a La Niña and a return to cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific in the near-term, but the higher global temperatures in the next five years reflect the continued warming from greenhouse gases.
Threats facing the Oceans
With contributions from more than 100 scientists from nearly 30 countries, UNESCO’s State of the Ocean Report 2024, published with the support of Iceland, reveals alarming new data on threats facing the ocean. This comprehensive assessment provides an evidence-based review of challenges including ocean warming, rising sea levels, pollution, acidification, de-oxygenation, blue carbon and biodiversity loss. While atmospheric temperatures tend to fluctuate, the ocean is steadily and constantly heating up. The State of the Ocean Report indicates that the ocean is now warming at twice the rate it was twenty years ago, with 2023 seeing one of the highest increases since the 1950s. While the Paris Agreements pledged to keep global warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, ocean temperatures have already increased by an average of 1.45°C, with clear hotspots above 2°C in the Mediterranean, Tropical Atlantic Ocean and Southern Oceans.
One dramatic consequence of this warming is an increase in sea levels across the globe. The ocean absorbs 90% of the excess heat released into the atmosphere, and as water heats up it expands. Warming ocean temperatures now account for 40% of the global rise in sea levels, and the rate of rising has doubled over the past 30 years totalling 9cm. Since the 1960s, the ocean has lost 2% of its oxygen due to warming temperatures and pollutants, including wastewater and agricultural run-off. Coastal areas are especially impacted, with species finding themselves on the frontline of a battle to breath: roughly 500 “dead zones” identified where almost no marine life remains due to a dwindling oxygen-content.
Rising acidity is also a major cause for concern: with 25-30% of fossil fuel emissions absorbed by the ocean, this overabundance of CO2 is reshaping the very chemical composition of the ocean. Since pre-industrial times, ocean acidity has increased by 30%, and will reach 170% by 2100. UNESCO’s findings reveal that once again coastal species are the hardest hit: while the high seas are steadily becoming more acidic, coastal waters are seeing dramatic fluctuations from high- to low-acidity, which young generations of animals and plants too fragile to survive, causing mass die-offs. The Organization is supporting dozens of scientific cooperation programs in all regions of the world, combining data sharing, high-definition mapping of the seabed, prevention of natural disasters and the search for innovative solutions to protect ecosystems. Through its more than 230 marine biosphere reserves and more than 50 marine sites inscribed on the World Heritage List, UNESCO is also the guardian of unique ocean sites which are home to critical biodiversity.
Global Warming From Fossil Fuels
2023 was the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures at 1.46C above pre-industrial levels and 0.13C higher than the eleven-month average for 2016, currently the warmest calendar year on record. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Administrator Rick Spinrad, the steady annual increase is a “direct result of human activity,” mainly from the burning of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation but also from cement manufacturing, deforestation, and agriculture.
Poor Governance
According to economists like Nicholas Stern, the climate crisis is a result of multiple market failures.
Economists and environmentalists have urged policymakers for years to increase the price of activities that emit greenhouse gases, the lack of which constitutes the largest market failure, for example through carbon taxes, which will stimulate innovations in low-carbon technologies.
To cut emissions quickly and effectively enough, governments must not only massively increase funding for green innovation to bring down the costs of low-carbon energy sources, but they also need to adopt a range of other policies that address each of the other market failures.
A national carbon tax is currently implemented in 27 countries around the world, including various countries in the EU, Canada, Singapore, Japan, Ukraine and Argentina.
Food Waste
A third of the food intended for human consumption – around 1.3 billion tons – is wasted or lost. This is enough to feed 3 billion people. Food waste and loss account for approximately one-quarter of greenhouse gas emissions annually; if it was a country, food waste would be the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China and the US.
Biodiversity Loss
The past 50 years have seen a rapid growth of human consumption, population, global trade and urbanisation, resulting in humanity using more of the Earth’s resources than it can replenish naturally.
Plastic Pollution
In 1950, the world produced more than 2 million tons of plastic per year. By 2015, this annual production swelled to 419 million tons and exacerbating plastic waste in the environment.
The world generates 300 million tonnes of plastic waste on average each year.
A report by science journal, Nature, determined that currently, roughly 14 million tons of plastic make their way into the oceans every year, harming wildlife habitats and the animals that live in them. The research found that if no action is taken, the plastic crisis will grow to 29 million metric tons per year by 2040. If we include microplastics into this, the cumulative amount of plastic in the ocean could reach 600 million tons by 2040.
Deforestation
Every hour, forests the size of 300 football fields are cut down. By the year 2030, the planet might have only 10% of its forests; if deforestation isn’t stopped, they could all be gone in less than 100 years.
The three countries experiencing the highest levels of deforestation are Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia.
Air Pollution:
Data from the World Health Organization (WHO) shows that an estimated 4.2 to 7 million people die from air pollution worldwide every year and that nine out of 10 people breathe air that contains high levels of pollutants.
Melting Ice Caps and Sea Level Rise
The climate crisis is warming the Arctic more than twice as fast as anywhere else on the planet. Today, sea levels are rising more than twice as quickly as they did for most of the 20th century as a result of increasing temperatures on Earth.
Ocean Acidification
Global temperature rise has not only affected the surface, but it is the main cause of ocean acidification. Our oceans absorb about 30% of carbon dioxide that is released into the Earth’s atmosphere. As higher concentrations of carbon emissions are released thanks to human activities such as burning fossil fuels as well as effects of global climate change such as increased rates of wildfires, so do the amount of carbon dioxide that is absorbed back into the sea.
Agriculture
Studies have shown that the global food system is responsible for up to one-third of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, of which 30% comes from livestock and fisheries. Crop production releases greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide through the use of fertilisers.
60% of the world’s agricultural area is dedicated to cattle ranching, although it only makes up 24% of global meat consumption.
Food and Water Insecurity
Globally, more than 68 billion tonnes of top-soil is eroded every year at a rate 100 times faster than it can naturally be replenished. Laden with biocides and fertiliser, the soil ends up in waterways where it contaminates drinking water and protected areas downstream.
Fast Fashion and Textile Waste
The global demand for fashion and clothing has risen at an unprecedented rate that the fashion industry now accounts for 10% of global carbon emissions, becoming one of the biggest environmental problems of our time. Fashion alone produces more greenhouse gas emissions than both the aviation and shipping sectors combined, and nearly 20% of global wastewater, or around 93 billion cubic metres from textile dyeing, according to the UN Environment Programme.
Overfishing
About 12% of the world relies upon fisheries in some form or another, with 90% of these being small-scale fishermen – think a small crew in a boat, not a ship, using small nets or even rods and reels and lures not too different from the kind you probably use. Of the 18.9 million fishermen in the world, 90% of them fall under the latter category.
Cobalt Mining
Cobalt is quickly becoming the defining example of the mineral conundrum at the heart of the renewable energy transition. As a key component of battery materials that power electric vehicles (EVs), cobalt is facing a sustained surge in demand as decarbonisation efforts progress. The world’s largest cobalt supplier is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where it is estimated that up to a fifth of the production is produced through artisanal miners.
Soil Degradation
Organic matter is a crucial component of soil as it allows it to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. According to the United Nations, about 40% of the planet’s soil is degraded. Soil degradation refers to the loss of organic matter, changes in its structural condition and/or decline in soil fertility and it is often the result of human activities, such as traditional farming practices including the use of toxic chemicals and pollutants.
