Will They Come?

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For the last half decade, there have been growing and persistent concerns about the attractiveness of US higher education to International students. The high point for such international mobility was reached in 2018/19, followed by steep declines in 2020/21 and 2021/22, as the Covid-19 pandemic played out, not only in the US but globally. International enrollments during the period went down in every major destination country.

The US received particular attention. Our very high tuition costs continued to rise. The Trump administration began singling out countries whose students would not be welcome, and rising political tensions with China — the major source of international students between 2009/10 and 2022/23 — correlated with a decline of over 19,803 new students from 2018/19 to 2019/20, and 161,401 from 2019/20 to 2020/21. In the 2023/24 academic year, China declined 4 percent to 277,771 students, and India was the leading place of origin for the first time since 2008/09, with 332,217 students.

But today, the numbers we’re seeing are truly historic. IIE’s 75th Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange, released on November 18, found that during the 2023/2024 academic year, U.S. colleges and universities, ranging from major research universities to community colleges, supported 1,128,065 students from over 200 countries. This represents an increase of more than 70,000 students from 2022/23. The rate of growth over the last three years is also higher than the country has recorded since 1920, the year we began conducting a census of inbound international student mobility for the U.S. Government. For the 2021/22 academic year, the US gained 34,424 new international students year-over-year, and 108,669 in 2022/23 year-over-year. These numbers counter recent reports on immigration from the National Academies of Science and Medicine, which have questioned the US’s ability to attract foreign talent.

It’s the right question to ask, given America’s dependence on International students for graduate student researchers and assistants especially in the STEM fields. In fact, 53% of US patents were issued to international scientists, meaning that out of all patents granted by the USPTO, roughly half went to inventors outside of the United States. People from countries where national politics are turning against immigrants, and caps are being placed on International students, are wondering what the next few years will hold. Will American higher education institutions want and welcome more?

International students accounted for 7% of the total U.S. higher education population students in the 2023/24 academic year. Approximately half of our 50 states place limits on the number of out-of-state students that can be enrolled and these caps include some but not all foreign students. Some US universities have special arrangements with countries, and in some cases, sister cities that permit and encourage higher numbers.

For example, the University of Texas at Austin has exchange programs and agreements with countries like Mexico and South Korea, particularly through its sister city relationships, to promote international student enrollment outside the traditional caps. Several campuses in the UC system, including UC Berkeley and UCLA, allow for a higher non-resident percentage of students, due to their global reputation and revenue needs, in spite of the cap on non-resident students. Other states such as North Carolina, Virginia, Washington, among others have similar arrangements. But we do not have a system of national caps put in place by the Federal government and the private colleges and universities are not subject to those mandated by the governments of their states. For the first time in US history, we had a candidate for President, whose parents came to America as International students. Her opponent, when he ran in 2016, included in his campaign a call for stapling “green cards” to the diplomas of those who graduated in the STEM fields – an idea he has once again embraced.

We are not running out of students who want to come here. We are not running out of places for them. Nor are we running out of people who want to immigrate here. We are however facing a domestic enrollment cliff, as the number of students going to college is expected to shrink across the next 5 to 10 years by as many as 15 percentage points, making room for more international students than ever before.

However, the U.S. continues to limit the number of graduates from elsewhere what want to work here. For the 2024 fiscal year, around 781,000 initial H1B visa applications were submitted, but only 24% were selected to complete a petition. Of those, only 85,000 will receive a visa because, since 2004, Congress has imposed an annual cap of 65,000, with an additional 20,000 for master’s and PhD degree-holders.

In short, the reasons why International students want to come here are not changing. Our 4,000 accredited colleges and universities offer a wide range of degree courses and facilities that far exceed what they have available at home. The supply of educational opportunities in large countries that make up the top ten or 20 sources of international students is dwindling or being outpaced by the rising number of 18-24 year olds who are college ready. And when I ask international students and researchers why they still come here, the consensus is that it would take years for them at home to conduct the kind of research and independent study that they can do from day one in America.

This is no time to be complacent or take the future for granted. We know international exchange strengthens democracy by promoting cross-cultural understanding and encouraging ongoing dialogue among diverse populations. When students and scholars study beyond their borders, they bring back knowledge of civic participation, trust and enhanced cooperation between nations, reinforcing peace on a global scale. We are fortunate that these effects can be made in the USA at our colleges and universities who are keeping their doors open..

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