Falling birth rates are triggering a global population crisis.
Aging societies, shrinking workforces, and economic strain loom,
quick fixes won’t be enough
The decline in fertility rates worldwide is causing population collapse in major economies. According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024 Revision, the world population is expected to peak in 2084 and the overall fertility rate is expected to fall below population replacement level in the early 2050s. The United Nations’ (UN) projection shows that the population of some developed countries will decrease by 20% to 50% by 2100.
A report prepared by the McKinsey Global Institute reveals that China’s population will decrease by 55% in the 22nd century. The report, which noted that Italy’s population will decrease by 41%, stated that Türkiye will be the country with the greatest population loss. If current governments do not take any action, the young population will bear the cost of more retired people.
The rapid decline in fertility rates in countries such as the United States, Canada, the European Union, China, Japan, and Türkiye is causing these countries to face serious problems such as economic stagnation and loss of labor. This is becoming a global crisis that must be managed not only with policies that encourage population growth, but also with comprehensive social welfare reforms. In this article, we will examine the declining fertility rates in countries regionally and the proposed incentive policies.
Experts say Trump’s “Baby Bonus” proposal will not solve parents’ real problems
When we look at the American continent, the US and Canada are among the countries with rapidly declining fertility rates.
The Congressional Budget Office, which estimated that the US population would fall to 372 million in 30 years, narrowed this estimate by 2.8% due to falling birth rates and reduced immigration. According to the latest published statistics, birth rates in the US have been declining since 2007, with 1.6 births per woman. Experts who study demographics predict that this decline will lead to economic stagnation and a shrinking workforce in the future.
Government officials who foresaw the possible consequences have taken action and started taking steps to encourage the American people. US President Donald Trump said, “It sounds like a good idea to me,” when a reporter asked him in the Oval Office about a New York Times report mentioning the $5,000 offer. According to the incentive plan in question, 30 percent of Fulbright scholarships could be allocated to applicants who are married and have children. On the other hand, it is considering giving the ‘National Medal of Motherhood’ to American women who have six or more children. Within the scope of this incentive, the Trump administration could also take various measures to reduce the cost of in vitro fertilization (IVF).
While the high cost of childcare in the US makes having a baby quite expensive, experts say that a one-time payment of $5,000 will not be enough. According to calculations, babycare costs in the US are $14,000 per year, and in some states this figure could be as high as $25,000. A 2022 study by the Brookings Institution shows that a middle-class family with dual-income would need to spend between $285,000 and $311,000 to raise a baby born in 2015.
There is also a fertility funding gap in Canada
Another developed country in the American continent struggling with low fertility rates is Canada. The fertility rate in Canada fell to a historic low of 1.26 children per woman in 2023. According to data published by Statistics Canada, this rate is the lowest level recorded since the institution began collecting data.
The province of New Brunswick has taken various steps to reduce the costs of families struggling with infertility. The province’s website announced that more than $1.9 million has been allocated for IVF treatment per household. Experts state that infertility has affected approximately one in six Canadians in recent years. “We want every New Brunswicker who wants to start a family to have that choice,” Premier Susan Holt said in a news release. “Financial barriers shouldn’t stand in the way of making someone’s dream of starting a family come true.”
Japan’s child population is falling for the 44th consecutive year
Similar situations are also being experienced in Asia, the world’s most populous continent. While the child population in Japan has decreased for the 44th consecutive year, reaching a record level, the Chinese population has fallen in the last 3 years in a row. Moreover, Türkiye is expected to be the country that will experience the greatest population loss among developing countries. In Japan, the first country we will examine in Asia, the government has recently released data showing that low birth rates have become even more critical. The report announced that the number of children under the age of 14 in the country is 13.66 million. While the child population in the US and China is 21.7 percent and 17.1 percent, respectively, this rate is only 11.1 percent in Japan. Also, Japan which is well below the 2.1 child rate accepted as the threshold for population renewal, has a birth rate of 1.3 per woman. In addition, more than 20 percent of the country’s population is over the age of 65. Academics predict that Japan’s population will continue to decline for another 20-30 years, falling from 123.5 million to 88 million by 2065.
The government has taken steps to increase birth rates, such as reducing working hours and encouraging marriage, but the high cost of living and low wages are reducing the effectiveness of these incentives. To counter this, the government has submitted a bill to the House of Representatives of Japan to create an annual budget of 3.6 trillion yen (about $20 billion) for child benefits. However, there are doubts that the allocated amount will have a positive impact on childbirth rates.
China plans to lower the marriage age
China’s population is rapidly aging. While individuals aged 65 and over make up 15.6 percent of the total population, the proportion of those aged 60 and over has reached 22 percent. The working-age population has shown a decreasing trend, falling to 60.9 percent.
Despite the one-child policy being lifted in 2016, China’s population growth has not recovered. The population is set to decline by 1.39 million in 2024, marking its third consecutive decline. This shows that the country’s demographic problems continue. Despite the end of the one-child policy, economic stagnation and high living costs have not been enough to increase fertility rates.
While China continues to seek solutions to its population decline, Chen Songxi, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), has suggested lowering the legal age of marriage to 18 in order to encourage fertility. The legal age for marriage in China is 22 for men and 20 for women, one of the highest in the world. While the age limit is usually 18 in developed countries, China has a stricter policy. Chen argues that this age limit should be brought in line with international standards.
Historical fall in fertility rate in Türkiye
According to the 2024 birth data of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), 937,559 babies were born in Türkiye throughout the year. The data in question showed that the total fertility rate continued to decline. While the fertility rate was 2.38 per woman in 2001, this rate decreased to 1.48 in 2024.
TÜİK’s ‘Population Projections 2023-2100’ research shows that the population of Türkiye will increase until the 2050s but will start to decrease afterwards. Research officials also expect that the population in Türkiye will fall below 77 million by 2100 under the normal scenario, and this number will fall below 55 million under the low fertility scenario. In order to prevent Türkiye from entering a demographic crisis, the government has taken measures to support marriage and population growth. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared 2025 as the “Year of the Family” at the cabinet meeting on January 6, 2025. It was also announced that 150,000 Turkish Lira (TL) interest-free loans would be given to newlyweds. Birth benefits were also increased, with one-time support being increased to 5,000 TL, support for the second child to 1,500 TL, and support for the third and subsequent children to 5,000 TL.
Prof. Dr. Mehmet Ali Eryurt, a faculty member at Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, evaluated for Envoy Magazine how the decrease in the child population in Türkiye from 48.5 percent to 25.5 percent in the last 50 years will affect the social structure. Eryurt thinks that the decline in fertility and the shrinking share of children and young people in the population bring both opportunities and challenges.
“In populations where fertility is falling, a ‘demographic window of opportunity’ opens for economic development, as the child dependency ratio decreases and the proportion of the elderly population has not yet reached high levels. Türkiye has been in such a period since around 2005–2010, and this window is expected to remain open until the mid-2030s,” said Eryurt. “The demographic window of opportunity refers to a temporary period in a country’s development when the working-age population is larger than the dependent population (children and the elderly). This phase happens only once in a nation’s demographic transition.”
According to Eryurt, once long characterized as a ‘young population’ Türkiye is now gradually losing this demographic advantage. On the other hand, the median age is approaching 35. A sharp decline in the share of children disrupts the balance of the age structure, affecting all aspects of life and leading to significant consequences for societal sustainability. “The first area likely to feel the impact is school-age populations. Starting from early childhood education, a decline will be observed across all levels of school-age groups,” said Eryurt. “Physical infrastructure will need to be reorganized; some classrooms in certain regions may remain empty, and regional disparities will likely increase. Therefore, future education planning must take these regional differences into account and prioritize investments in the quality of education.”
So, how will the decline in the young population affect Türkiye’s education, employment, and social security systems?
Eryurt thinks that the decline in the young population and the rise in the older age group will have broad impacts across all areas of life—from education and healthcare to employment and social security.
According to Eryurt, among the areas most affected by changes in the age structure are the healthcare and social security systems. “In healthcare, the rising share of older people will shift the burden of disease, increasing the prevalence of more costly chronic illnesses. In the realm of social security, the active/passive ratio—which reflects the balance between contributors to and beneficiaries of the system—will steadily worsen. This ratio, already suboptimal, is likely to become a more critical challenge in the future,” said Eryurt. “To respond effectively, preparations for the emerging age structure must not be delayed. Long-term strategies and programs should be designed and implemented starting today.”
Eryurt also evaluated the possible effects of the interest-free loan support to be given to newly married couples. Eryurt reminded that the interest-free loan support for young people under the age of 30 who meet certain criteria had already been implemented in selected regions. Eryurt said that the support, which was first implemented in the provinces affected by the earthquake, was later expanded to pilot provinces, and that this support is now spreading throughout the country.
“I believe these financial incentives are important, as they may help ease—at least to some extent—the economic burden of marriage and child-rearing. However, it is equally important to address the underlying social and economic factors that lead couples to delay marriage or have fewer children than they desire,” said Eryurt. “High youth unemployment, soaring housing prices and rents, and widespread uncertainty about the future are among the key challenges. These issues require comprehensive responses through well-designed social and economic policies.” Eryurt stated the following about the economic and social consequences of Türkiye’s population shrinking to 55 million by 2100:
“Among the population projections available, I find the scenario in which Türkiye’s population falls below 55 million to be the most likely. The population is expected to begin declining in size—particularly from the 2050s onward. However, beyond the decline in size, profound changes will also occur in the age structure. Currently, one in every ten people in Türkiye is aged 65 or older. By 2050, this ratio is expected to be one in four; by the 2070s, one in three; and by 2100, four in ten. This anticipated transformation requires urgent action across many sectors—from education and the labor market to the social security system, from healthcare and old-age care to urban planning. Changes in population size and structure are not merely demographic issues; they are deeply tied to development and social sustainability. For this reason, it is essential to adopt and implement long-term, holistic policies without delay.”
The European Union’s birth rate has fallen to a record level
Europe’s attempts to close its borders could accelerate population decline and lead to economic problems. According to data from the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), on current trends the EU population will fall from 447 million to 419 million by 2100. If there is no immigration, this number could fall to 295 million.
If there is no immigration to European countries, the population is expected to not only shrink but also age. The proportion of the EU population aged 65 and over, currently at 21 percent, is projected to rise to 36 percent by 2100 if no immigrants are accepted. This could put serious economic pressure on health and social care services, as many European countries are dependent on immigrant doctors and nurses for their health systems.
Furthermore, the German economy is facing a shortage of skilled workers due to demographic change and an aging population leaving the workforce. In France, President Emmanuel Macron aims to increase fertility to maintain national vitality. In Italy, Georgia Meloni is encouraging women to have more children. In Europe, governments are spending billions of euros on large-scale incentive programs to increase the number of children, including cash incentives, tax breaks, paid parental leave, and child benefits.
Dr. Nicole Hiekel, who leads the Independent Research Group on Gender Inequalities and Fertility at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), commented on the sociological and economic effects of declining birth rates in the EU for Envoy Magazine.
Hiekel, who touched on the long-term effects of the decline in birth rates across the European Union on social welfare systems, said that the decline in birth rates across the EU is likely to have profound long-term consequences for social welfare systems, which are already under pressure due to aging populations. “An aging population leads to a shrinking tax base and increased demand for services like healthcare, pensions, and long-term care. The dependency ratio—the number of retirees versus working-age individuals—will continue to rise unless offset by higher workforce participation, particularly among underrepresented groups, including women and migrants,” Hiekel said. In Germany specifically, low birth rates will have negative effects on the labor market. Hiekel, who touched on these effects, said: “In Germany, the low birth rate is already creating labor market challenges, particularly labor shortages and increased competition for skilled workers. My research on gender inequalities and fertility shows that mothers often do not receive the returns from the labor market that their potential warrants, as they continue to bear the majority of caregiving responsibilities, leading many to work fewer hours or in low-wage jobs after having children. While policies like relatively generous parental leave exist, fathers often take little more than the additional two months that the couple would lose if the second parent doesn’t take leave, reinforcing the gendered division of labor after childbearing. These inequalities exacerbate labor shortages and perpetuate gender inequalities that affect both families and the economy.”
So, which of the birth incentive policies implemented across Europe are more effective?
Hiekel, who examined incentive policies, said that policies that offer paid parental leave to both parents, rather than just mothers, help normalize the participation of fathers in child rearing, which is crucial for gender equality. Hiekel thinks that cash transfers and tax breaks provide temporary financial relief, but they do not necessarily address deeper barriers like access to affordable housing, high-quality childcare, and work-life balance.
“My research highlights that policies which challenge traditional caregiving roles not only support those who decide to have children but also create an environment where raising a family is more feasible for both parents,”she said. “Countries like Sweden, with progressive parental leave policies and strong support for both parents in the workplace, have shown that such integrated approaches lead to more gender equal societies. However, despite these advances, Nordic countries still experience low fertility rates, highlighting that while these policies are critical, they are not sufficient.”
“Childbearing should remain an individual choice,” Hiekel said, adding that policies encouraging shared care between mothers and fathers can influence fertility decisions, but are not strong enough to overcome deeper cultural and economic factors.
As a result, falling fertility rates globally are not only a demographic problem, but also a serious economic, social and political crisis. Many countries, from the US to Japan, from Türkiye to Canada, are faced with aging populations, shrinking workforces and increasing social security burdens. Steps taken in many areas such as in vitro fertilization financing, marriage incentives and immigration policies, are considered important steps for population renewal, but these supports alone are not sufficient for population growth. Experts argue that these policies should be supported by comprehensive social reforms for effective results.
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